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                          鐵路裝備行業投資研究報告:復興號運營擴容 高鐵軌交預期好轉

                          來源:國金證券

                            事件

                            根據中國鐵路上海局集團有限公司消息,4月10日起,長三角鐵路將實施新的列車運行圖,“復興號”進行大規模擴容,目前開行總數45列,調圖后增加至86列,其中京滬高鐵由現行的7對增至15對,按時速350公里運行。

                            評論

                            利空因素消化:年初鐵總工作計劃下調18年鐵路建設投資規模及車輛采購費用,降幅約為10%。我們從兩個角度看待鐵路總投資的下降,首先以當前高鐵總里程看,高鐵建設已經度過了第一輪黃金時期,但從現有規劃來看,十三五后期將是高鐵通車的第二輪景氣周期,高鐵建設仍會保持在較高水平,預計年均通車3000公里左右;第二,主干網絡基本建成后,新建高鐵重心從東部地區,向中西部地區轉移,高鐵單位造價在下降,成本的下降使得在同樣的建設規模上,只需花費更少的錢,這也是鐵路總投資下調的因素之一。今年高鐵計劃通車3500公里超預期,疊加復興號大規模上線運營和采購招標,我們認為17年轉至18年是訂單好轉兌現到業績的關鍵一年,行業有較強的業績向上支撐。年初至今,鐵路設備指數下跌近13%、中國中車下跌15%,利空因素已逐步消化。

                            利好因素兌現:長三角鐵路4月10日調圖,“復興號”列車從45列增加至86列,將近翻倍增長,表明采用中國標準的新一代動車組“復興號”從初期運營逐步邁向成熟運用,正處于快速的交付使用期。“復興號”的批量上線對于板塊是重要利好信號,表明鐵總的訂單在穩步轉化成中車的業績,并沿尋產業鏈擴散,傳導至零部件供應商。去年11月招標的175列復興號,大部分將于今年上半年完成,同時預計18年會有更大規模的復興號招標釋放,總規模預計在300列左右。經歷17年的業績低點,行業底部復蘇,今年會有明顯的業績彈性釋放;其中復興號的運用及招標,將為行業提供持續的看點及利好催化。

                            城軌建設標準抬高的實際影響有限。對于城軌地鐵,前段時間行業出現較多負面新聞,可分為三類:一是部分在建地鐵項目叫停,二是新報規劃未通過審批,三是城軌建設門檻提高。其實際影響并不如想象中嚴重:第一,被叫停的城市,如包頭及呼和浩特,在總體建設里程中的占比不足5%,影響較小;第二,建設門檻提高,GDP標準從1000億升至3000億、提高200%,但上一次的標準原是2003年制定,距今已有15年,考慮國內經濟年均6-8%的增速,各地區GDP增幅均不止200%,標準提高的實質影響不大,側重在于體現國家層面主管部門的態度;第三,主管部門的態度,我們從文件表述可以看出,發改委主要目的在于限制一些高負債的地方與實際財政能力不匹配的投資行為,重點是防范和疏解風險,而非針對地鐵項目的一刀切,實際上的影響是地鐵建設將會順延而非消除,只是平滑了未來幾年地鐵建設及通車的時間節奏。

                            投資建議

                            我們認為高鐵軌交行業利空消化,利好因素兌現,從估值與業績優選個股,重點推薦:海達股份(復興號密封件核心供應商、業績進入爆發期)、康尼機電(門系統龍頭、軌交+消費雙主業)、中國中車(軌交車輛全球龍頭、大國重器核心代表),建議關注:華鐵股份、永貴電器、時代電氣。

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